Have you ever watched someone speak with absolute certainty about a topic, and you knew that they really had no clue about what they were talking about?

It’s uncomfortable, isn’t it?

We have all likely been that person at some point — where our confidence exceeds our ability. What is that strange gap between confidence and competence? That’s the Dunning-Kruger Effect — and it shows up more often than we think, especially in the workplace. For a few people, it can be a daily event.

Dunning-Kruger Effect: A cognitive bias where people with low competence in a skill tend to overestimate their own abilities and knowledge in that area. This lack of metacognitive awareness prevents them from accurately assessing their own performance, while high performers often underestimate their abilities.

It’s not arrogance — it’s a lack of self-awareness. And ironically, the more skilled you actually become, the more you realize how much you really don’t know. It’s a humbling paradox: ignorance breeds confidence, while knowledge breeds humility.

In the workplace, this can manifest in subtle but impactful ways:

• Take the new manager who’s just stepped into a leadership role. They’ve read a few books, maybe taken a course or two, and suddenly they’re convinced they know how to lead a team. But leadership isn’t theoretical –it’s relational. Without emotional intelligence, listening skills, and the ability to navigate conflict, that over confidence can quickly erode trust.
• In politics, a new leader speaks from a place of confidence yet includes statistics and events that are not true or highly exaggerated to make their point. Their presence presents itself as arrogance — yet it’s uninformed arrogance. Being familiar with the topic, you soon lose trust in the leader. You question their integrity, intentions and ability.
• Or the school district leader, who’s just attended a one-day workshop on a new pedagogical approach to language instruction. They return to their school district, energized, ready to overhaul their system. But, without deeper understanding or support, the implementation falters. Staff are confused, students are frustrated, outcomes may drop, and the leader feels disillusioned. The intent was good, but the execution lacked depth.

Understand this effect isn’t meant to shame anyone. It’s about recognizing a pattern — and learning from it.

The real danger of the Dunning-Kruger Effect isn’t ignorance itself — it’s the illusion of knowledge. When we think we know more than we do, we stop asking questions. We stop listening. And that’s when growth stalls. Arrogance takes over and learning stops.

So how do we move forward as an organization?

NORMALIZE NOT KNOWING

• In a culture that rewards certainty, admitting “I don’t know” can feel risky. But it’s actually a sign of calm wisdom. The most competent leaders I know are the ones who ask the most questions. They’re not afraid to look foolish by not knowing, because they know that learning is messy — and worth it.

BUILD FEEDBACK-RICH ENVIRONMENTS

• Whether it’s in a classroom, the boardroom, or a team meeting, feedback helps us calibrate our self-perception. It’s not about criticism — it’s about clarity. When we invite others to reflect back on what they see, we gain insight into our blind spots. And that’s where real growth begins.

INVEST IN REFLECTION

• Think about a time you were sure of something and later realized you were completely off base. What led you to that conclusion? What did you miss? Reflection isn’t about beating ourselves up — it’s about building self-awareness. Self-awareness is the antidote to the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

LEAD WITH HUMILITY

• Humility isn’t weakness — it’s strength. It’s the quiet confidence that comes from knowing your limits and being open to learning. When leaders model humility, they create space for others to do the same. And that’s when teams thrive.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect isn’t a flaw — it’s a feature of how our brains work. But when we understand it, and pay attention to opportunities when it might happen, we can move from unconscious incompetence to conscious growth.

So, stop pretending to know when you don’t … admit when you don’t know something … and look for those opportunities to gain the knowledge you’re missing.

Be genuine … Be transparent … Be humble … and seek knowledge.

Why wouldn’t we want to do that?

^{(This post was inspired by the author prompting AI, however, the majority of the writing is the author’s own work.)}